The biggest fight of the year is this weekend, and it should be a good one. Saul “Canelo” Alvarez is arguably the biggest name in boxing and he’s taking on Amir Khan, a 29-year-old British boxer who will be fighting as a middleweight for the first time in his career.
There’s so many things to love about this fight. We’re probably going to see a knockout and if we don’t, we’re going to see a historic upset. We’re also going to see underdog Khan make a bold — some say reckless — jump up two weight divisions to fight Canelo. To make matters even better: Both men need to win, and the outcome of the will have major ramification for both.
“Khan’s already planning his victory party,” Oscar De La Hoya, Canelo Alvarez’s agent, told For The Win. “He’s that confident that’s he’s going to knockout Canelo.”
Canelo will come into the ringer bigger, stronger, and more experienced than Khan. He can swallow a punch, too, so even though Khan will have bulked-up to fight Canelo at 155 pounds (he’s never fought at more than 147), he’ll have to be really complacent in order for Khan to inflict much serious damage. Khan will try to dance around him, but if Canelo can keep the pressure up and hit him with a few big punches, he should claim a knockout win.
Canelo’s upper body movement has improved in his last few fights, as you can see in the clip above, but there are times when Canelo looks a little heavy on his feet. He likes to square up to his opponents and throw big punches, which can leave him looking stationary against quick counter-punchers — it’s no wonder that the only loss of his career came against Floyd Mayweather in a unanimous decision.
Beating Khan would secure Canelo as the most recognizable fighter in the post-Mayweather/Pacquiao Era of boxing. It would also set up two more potential superfights: a much-talked about bout with mandatory challenger Gennady Golovkin, who moved to 35-0 (32 KOs) after beating Dominic Wade on April 23rd, or a big money rematch with Mayweather, who could be drawn back out of retirement.
“What beats Canelo, in my eyes, is speed,” Khan said on Tuesday, and he’s right. Big guys like Canelo struggle against speedsters, and there’s no denying that Khan is a smarter fighter now than he was a few years ago. If Khan can keep his distance from Canelo’s bigger punches and capitalize with some of his signature quick combinations, he’ll be primed to win a decision.
Khan has talked a lot about how his speed will win him the fight, but his is a different kind of speed. He’s not a quick, outside-jabber or a counter-puncher. Khan likes to bounce around, throw quick flurries of punches and then cycle away. The problem is that doing that requires Khan temporarily stand relatively still, which opens him up to a big punch from Canelo. Khan doesn’t have the strongest chin in the world, either, and he won’t be used to taking a punch from someone like as strong as Canelo. He’s been knocked out brutally twice in the past, and it could only take one big punch for this to be game over.
A Khan victory would completely upend the boxing order. Canelo has a rematch clause in his contract so that would be next on the agenda, but should he prevail once again, there’s a host of possibilities that would’ve opened up. He’s long been angling for a showdown with Mayweather, so he may land that fight after all. A loss would likely return him to the pantheon of where he was before: A good, but not great, boxer.
Verdict:
Canelo wins this one in a knockout, probably in the third or fourth round. He’ll try to do the right stuff, but Canelo only needs to land one big punch for him to win this thing. The margin of error is just too thin, though expect fireworks in the process.
Odds
Odds on more props will open up after the weigh-in, but right now, Bovada has Canelo the favorite at -550, with Khan at +375.
How to watch
The fight will start at about 9 p.m. (ET) on HBO, but you can also catch all HBO’s 24/7 shows on YouTube. Fight sponsor Tecate also has some really cool stuff going on on its “Bold Punch” app, too. They’re offering live video from behind the scenes from Canelo in the build-up, and during the fight itself, the app will actually vibrate every time Canelo lands a punch on Khan.
The original Author of this article is Luke Kerr-Dineen
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